On “the economy,” data, and trust
It's not about the numbers
Some of the people I know who are big Trump supporters say that “the economy” is one of their main concerns. They’re voting for Trump, they say, because of inflation and the terrible state of the current economy in the US. This is similar to what his supporters were saying back in 2016 when there was all that talk about “economic anxiety.”
So how is the economy doing? In her post from October 30th,
wrote this:Today the Commerce Department reported that from July through September, the nation’s economy grew at a solid 2.8%. Consumer spending is up, as is investment in business. The country added 254,000 jobs in September, and inflation has fallen back almost to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
It is extraordinarily rare for a country to be able to reduce inflation without creating a recession, but the Biden administration has managed to do so, producing what economists call a “soft landing,” rather like catching an egg on a plate. As Bryan Mena of CNN wrote today: “The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.”
Current inflation is at 2.4% today. But for the Trump supporters in my life, “the economy” is still terrible, of course. It seems like nothing can dislodge this sentiment…at least until their chosen leader gains power. This reminds me of 2016, when so many voters were also supposedly very concerned about the state of the economy. In polls before the election, these folks were saying the economy, under Obama, was terrible. But guess what happened just weeks after the election? Suddenly, once Trump was elected, Republicans said the economy and economic outlook were much better. Like magic.
Clearly, there’s something more going on here than economic indicators, stats, and facts. A big part of this, of course, is that people tend to see the economy (among other things) through a cultural and political lens. This is why it doesn’t necessarily work to reply to someone who says the economy is terrible with a bunch of stats, charts, and news articles about the current state of the economy. It’s similar with other issues, like climate change, where bringing up details about the evidence of warmer oceans or rising seas often doesn’t have much of an impact on what people believe. In some cases, bringing up this kind of information can actually further entrench people in their views, especially depending on the source of the information. Sharing NOAA’s data on sea level rise data can elicit a response along the lines of: “NOAA? That’s part of the Deep State! Why would I trust anything they say?” It’s actually not about data or evidence or facts, but a much bigger problem about trust, relationships, and political polarization.
It’s the same with the economy. Statements and sentiments about “the economy,” which seem to be about things like data and economic indicators, are often actually about partisanship, allegiance, and ultimately trust. And that’s why jumping into such conversations with the assumption that “sharing the data” will somehow win people over…completely falls flat. It’s not actually about those economic indicators, or the current inflation rate, or even the price of gas. It’s about allegiance and trust, which aren’t so easily upended. Such conversations take time. It’s helpful to keep this in mind as you navigate these kinds of conversations and relationships.